Me in Tajikistan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/tajikistan/story/2007/04/070430_d_entertainment.shtml

NOTE

I KNOW I AM 5 Kg.s extra and please don't forward it to Animal Rights activists.
What to do am vegetarian and the only thing for me was fried potato's and fruit juice (coz no clean drinking water)....

Tajikistan: Some Reflections

Communiqué with Ambassador M.K.Bhadrakumar on 2nd June 2007
A.MKB: My impression has been that Kabiri doesn't have the charisma of Nuri. It's doubtful if he can arrest the IRPT's decline (which is partly due to the government's manipulation, but not entirely).
Me: I had never seen Nuri so I can’t comment. Kabiri is still young and has not evolved out of the civil war. He is still in the process of establishing his position within the party. But the fact is if you ask the local population from north to south the new generation is not even aware of the political parties, they say that there is one Democratic Party of President Rahmon, (Tajik’s cant tell the complete name of it) and there is one Islamic party. If you ask them about the leader of the opposition party or parties you'll find them looking blankly at you. So as you had mentioned Politics is not a greater issue for them than economy.
A.MKB.: Iran has dissociated itself from the IRPT, as far as I can see. Without some degree of regional patronage, IRPT will be having an uphill task in withstanding the govt pressure tactic. What is your impression?
Me: Socially and politically, IRPT still has a long way to go.
Most people in diplomatic circles and International NGO's fear the slow penetration of IRPT in the social milieu of Tajikistan as they will not fail to cite the example of a Kabodian (one of the base of IRPT) where just before the 2000 parliamentary elections Nuri was to deliver his speech. The local election control board did not make the required arrangements and did not inform the people but still there was a huge gathering as the people were informed by the local mullah’s. This most people think as slow and steady progress of IRPT, other examples usually quoted are opening of the mosques and prayer houses and the considerate activities of mullah's who are in many cases members of the IRPT. But these can not be seen as real threat.
In reality "The history is written by the victorious". People are brainwashed about the fact that IRPT was responsible for the civil war and Rahmon credited for bringing peace. Being an “Islamic” party people also look at it with suspicion as Tajik’s are clear about one thing that they don't want to be like Afghanistan.
IRPT supported the Pamiries during the civil war. Even the Badakshonies do not want to see IRPT coming to power.
About Iran, Tajik's feel very close to Iran and their Persian identity overrules their religious differences. When I reached Tajikistan first question was asked "Why did India voted against Iran?"
Though many people told me that the government is watchful about the activities of Iran in Tajikistan and Tajik government has even rejected registration to some important Iranian citizens. Having said that, recently some Mullahs came from Iran to conduct mass Muslim weddings in Tajikistan where they gave good dowry to the newly weds as well. In addition, Iran is involved in some economic projects in Tajikistan.
Fragile International position of Iran does not permit Iran to make more enemies. Moreover, siding with IRPT, though traditional allies of Iran, Iran has no religious gains. Few months back there was a bomb explosion in front of the Iranian embassy, a teaser and a warning to tell Iran to watch its activities in Tajikistan.
A.MKB: Geopolitically speaking, the international community doesn't want to upset the apple cart in Dushanbe. As such, the regional security situation is highly volatile. No one wants to exacerbate the tensions.
Me: I feel Tajikistan is an abandoned child. Moreover, Tajik government has been quite watchful about the activities of international NGO's. The representatives of International NGO's and International News agencies will first ask, "Do you have the permission of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or Ministry of Education to conduct an interview?" and the guidelines like, please don't quote us etc. follows.
A.MKB: What is your impression of the US support for IRPT as a democratic force? My feeling is that US must be wary of IRPT. What do you think?
Me: No second opinion. True. But US itself is not seen as a friend or a well wisher by the Tajik's. Presently it’s hard to foresee US sitting at the driver’s seat.
A.MKB: Are more strident Islamist forces appearing in Tajikistan, which may elbow out IRPT in due course -- such as Hezb-e-Tahrir?
Me: Not within the present political and social set up. Though, they might be working at the ground level in the villages. But they might need a strong political and popular leader like Ayatollah Seyyed Ruhollah Khomeini to reverse the situation, which is currently just not possible. Moreover these organizations lack financial resources to sustain themselves, national support and organizational skills. The idea’s like Jihad is not easily understood and does not revoke any feeling.
A.MKB: My overall impression is Rakhmon is firmly in control; people are more concerned about the stability and the bread and butter issues rather than 'democracy'.
Me: Yes President Rahmon feels quite confident and had even asked the opposition leader to take part in the recent November 2006 Presidential elections. This is because people are not aware about the opposition. Opposition is in fact sometimes considered as a derogatory term in Tajik society.
For the locals Rahmon is a very intelligent and good looking man and believe me if you ask the female population they will say that he is so tall and good looking he stands out in the crowd. They are proud of him. His personality rules. Moreover, when he talks about Tajikistan people think that he is so knowledgeable, he has recently published a book on the history of Tajikistan, He has even got over the handicap of fluency in spoken Russian language. He has captured the psyche of people by putting his pictures at all the important places and he is always on TV and newspapers. It's a good marketing strategy. He has no competition but with himself.
In addition, the corruption is so high that people have started living with it and feel that all are same. A known devil is better than an unknown.
To anticipate a revolution from within is a distant reality that requires people’s awareness of their rights and would require understanding of new imposed political ideology, "Democracy". (Maybe the new generation that has not seen the closed and feared communist system, evils of civil war and are slowly getting exposed to the western ideas like liberalism may takeup a fight against the 'authoritarian' rule).
A.MKB: What is the extent of Russian influence? Is it in any way declining?
Tajik's are always filled with gratitude when they talk about Russia as the Soviet time was golden time for them, reasons you know. They do not want to part with Russia under any circumstances. But the recent change in Russian Foreign Policy that is tilting towards Uzbekistan, with whom Tajikistan is slowly developing bitter relations, is making Tajiks feel alienated.
When we study politics we also study that the country that controls the economy, controls the polity. China is entering in a big way. Though it is not likely that China will be ever able to replace Russia but maybe it will be able to marginalize Tajikistan's economic dependence on Russia.